논문목차

논문목차

Predictive Abilities of Inflation Expectations and Implications on Monetary Policy in Korea
  • Author
    Dongchul Cho (KDI School of Public Policy and Management) and Wankeun Oh (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)
  • Year
    2023
  • Volume
    Vol.39
  • Number
    No.1
  • This paper examines the predictive abilities of various inflation expectation indicators for inflation in Korea. We conducted real-time out-of-sample forecasting experiments utilizing three inflation expectation indicators – the general public’s expectation, professional forecasters’ expectation, and break-even inflation (BEI). The results can be summarized as follows: (i) BEI is at least as useful as the other expectation indicators in forecasting inflation; (ii) regression-based models using industrial production, oil price, and exchange rate do not help out-of-sample inflation forecasting in eneral; (iii) the policy interest rate, in contrast, can significantly reduce the forecasting errors; and (iv) a one percent-point increase in the policy interest rate is estimated to suppress inflation for the subsequent 12 months by around one percent-point. These results suggest that monetary policy is effective for controlling inflation and a simple model using the policy interest rate and an inflation expectation indicator may be preferred for inflation forecasting. 
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