논문목차

논문목차

Dispersion of Inflation Expectations: Stylized Facts, Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Implications
  • Author
    Byeongdeuk Jang (Sungkyunkwan University) and Young Se Kim (Sungkyunkwan University)
  • Year
    2015
  • Volume
    Vol.31
  • Number
    No.1
  • Building on time-series and cross-sectional properties of survey forecasts, this paper
    documents a fruitful set of stylized facts of inflation expectations in Korea that a
    macroeconomic theory must aim to explain. Despite the fact that survey measures of
    inflation expectations have a similar central tendency, the amount of disagreement among
    different types of economic agents appears to be substantial and shows no clear relationship
    with relative price variability. The analysis of micro-level inflation expectations data
    suggests that inflation uncertainty measured by dispersion of households expectations relies
    not only on inflation regime but also on relative price variability. Each survey forecast has
    the ability to explain the path of future inflation, but surprisingly with the wrong direction
    from the rationality perspectives. Percentile regression analysis yields robust evidence of
    bounded rationality for the households.
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