논문목차

논문목차

Disaggregated Approach to Measuring Core Inflation
  • Author
    Hyok Jung Kim (Sungkyunkwan University) and Young Se Kim (Sungkyunkwan University)
  • Year
    2015
  • Volume
    Vol.31
  • Number
    No.1
  • To distinguish inflation signal from transient noise, monetary policymakers have long
    used core inflation measures. Using disaggregate CPI data for Korea, this paper reviews
    extant measures of core inflation and documents several important empirical features of the
    measures. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that the stylized facts on the extant measures
    are not compatible with a single stochastic trend, and our empirical findings strongly
    support this view. Motivated by price divergence, we model disaggregate prices in multiplecomponent
    structure and find there are four persistent components together with a group of
    diverging items. Having identified distinct common components, we employ a new core
    inflation measure based on a limited influence estimator for each convergence club. The
    new core inflation dominates the extant measures in its ability to account for central
    tendency of price distribution and for generating low variance of price changes. In addition,
    it forecasts the underlying trend of headline CPI inflation more accurately than the extant
    core inflation indicators do.
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