Articles

Articles

Housing Price Expectations and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Korea’s Housing-Centric Economy
  • Author
    Wooseok Kim (Bank of Korea), In Do Hwang (Bank of Korea) and Jae Won Lee (Bank of Korea & Seoul National University)
  • Year
    2026
  • Volume
    Vol.42
  • Number
    No.2
  • Using the Bank of Korea’s Consumer Tendency Survey, we show that house-price expectations in Korea are volatile, persistent, and lead subsequent growth in house prices. Expectations co-move with contemporaneous macro-financial conditions rather than lagged house prices, suggesting that households update beliefs reflecting current news rather than simply extrapolating past prices. In a monthly VAR, upward revisions to expectations raise house prices, household debt, real activity, and CPI. Expectations also operate as a distinct monetary-policy transmission channel: rate cuts lift expectations, amplifying effects on prices, debt, and activity; this channel is stronger under an accommodative macroprudential stance and muted under a restrictive stance. A counterfactual exercise underscores the stakes: anchoring expectations at their April 2020 level from May 2020 to May 2022 would have left real house prices 11.7 percent lower by May 2025 and the household-debt-to-GDP ratio 2.9 percentage points lower. Three policy implications are: (1) treat house-price expectations as a distinct transmission channel; (2) coordinate interest-rate policy with macroprudential tools; and (3) anchor expectations through clear, consistent communication.
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