Articles

Articles

Analysis of Regional Housing Cycle Polarization Phenomenon
  • Author
    Keun Yeong Lee (Sungkyunkwan University)
  • Year
    2025
  • Volume
    Vol.73
  • Number
    No.3
  • This study estimates common housing cycle turning points using the KB sales price index and the Korea Real Estate Board’s sales and transaction-based price indexes, and then compares them to the turning points announced by Statistics Korea. The estimation results of the mixed multiple change model of Camacho et al. (2022), which is a date-then-average approach, show that during the contraction periods (’08.01-’09.02, ’11.08-’13.03) of the 9th and 10th cycles of Statistics Korea, the housing market in the metropolitan areas also experienced contraction periods (’09.02-’09.12, ’11.02-’13.06), while the housing market in the provinces continued to expand. However, during the contraction period of the 11th cycle (’17.09-’20.05), the reverse was true: the housing market in the metropolitan area continued to expand, while the housing market in the provinces entered a contraction phase (’17.06-’20.04). This result is similar regardless of the type of housing or the type of sales price index. This polarization in the housing market is attributed to economic conditions in the metropolitan area and other areas, as well as various policy changes, but appears to be more closely related to policies regulating multiple home ownership than any other variable.
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