Articles

Articles

Adopting Economic and Financial Variables to Explain Stock Market Volatility in Korea
  • Author
    Seunghee Lee(Sungkyunkwan University), Heejoon Han(Sungkyunkwan University)
  • Year
    2016
  • Volume
    Vol.64
  • Number
    No.2
  • This paper studies stock market volatility in Korea using a semiparametric
    single index volatility model, in which a single index long run component
    induced by exogenous covariates is multiplied to a GARCH short run
    component. When a covariate is nonstationary, i.e. integrated or nearintegrated,
    the model can account for time-varying unconditional variance of
    financial time series. Among various economic and nancial indicators, it is
    found that the coincident composite index, VKOSPI, and housing price index
    are helpful in fitting and forecasting stock market volatility in Korea. It is
    shown that the model using these three variables outperforms standard models
    both in terms of in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting.
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